Brent: Risk premium holds as Persian Gulf flows rise – ING

ING’s Warren Patterson notes that Oil prices remain firm even as Persian Gulf supply recovers toward pre-war levels. He argues market concern over sustainability of these flows and the absence of a US-Iran deal are keeping a sizeable risk premium in Brent. ING maintains a low-conviction Brent forecast of $80/bbl for 4Q26 and $71/bbl for FY27, expecting lower prices into year-end.