Brazilian Real: Lula reelection risks and carry support – BBH

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad assesses Brazilian assets following President Lula’s surprise reelection. Haddad expects short-term downside for the Brazilian Real (BRL) as markets unwind the prior Bolsonaro-driven rally and react to rising public debt. However, Haddad highlights legislative constraints and Brazil’s attractive carry and commodity exposure as factors that could limit BRL weakness and later create a buying opportunity.