Turkish Lira: Easing cycle resumes as carry trade holds – ING

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the Central Bank of Turkey to resume easing, cutting rates by 100bp to 36.00%, with further 100bp cuts in October and December to 35% by year-end. He notes improved inflation sentiment and contained fund-related risks but warns of weaker domestic demand. Despite crowded long TRY positions, he sees the carry trade persisting and forecasts USD/TRY at 51.50 by year-end.