Stocks Are Flirting With a Dangerous Valuation Trap

What hasn’t really moved, however, is the longer end of the bond market, where yields remain elevated and forecasts for Federal Reserve rate hikes are getting increasingly aggressive following last week’s stronger-than-expected payroll data, and ahead of Wednesday’s May inflation readings. The higher yields, which have for the most part echoed market bets on a Fed rate hike before the end of the year, now priced at around 70% by the CME Group’s FedWatch, also seem to be resetting at levels that could make stock markets uncomfortable. Its closest comparison in the bond markets, the yield on 3-month Treasury bills, is holding at around 3.7%.